In between client calls and working on my book manuscript this week…
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Something crossed my desk that stopped me cold.
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INCYMI – Anthropic (the company behind the AI model Claude) just published a research paper on AI’s impact on the labor market.
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Buried in the paper is the chart below.
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(Take a look.)
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What you’re seeing is a breakdown of how much of each occupation’s work AI can theoretically perform (the blue section) versus how much it’s actually performing right now (the red section).
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Here’s the part that should make you pay very close attention:
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- 96% of computer and math tasks.
- 94% of business / finance tasks.
- 92% of management tasks.
- 85% of arts & media tasks.
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That’s the blue.
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That’s what AI can theoretically do today. Not in five years. TODAY.
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It’s actually easier to interpret in this bar chart format here:
Look at the red bars. That’s the observed usage. The gap between theoretical capability and actual adoption.
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That gap is where most of us are living right now.
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In other words…
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We see the wave on the horizon, but it hasn’t hit shore yet.
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However, it’s closing in on us.
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And fast.
1 | Here's What Most People Are Missing...
I’ve been following the conversations revolving around this research paper this week…
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Most people seeing this chart are asking, “Is my work safe?”
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But that’s the wrong question.
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The better question (especially if you’re an entrepreneur) is this:
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Where does what I sell live on this chart?
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If what you sell lives anywhere in the blue, you are competing against what is effectively free (or going to be free very soon.)
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The blue zone represents work that is being commoditized right now as we speak.
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(Meaning the price is headed toward zero.)
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But there’s a sliver on the right side of each bar that the blue doesn’t touch.
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A remaining 5%, give or take, depending on the category.
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This remaining 5% is where all the opportunity is.
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It’s also, not coincidentally, the core thesis of my upcoming book, Return to Real.
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Which brings us to…
2 | The Pattern I Keep Seeing.
I’ve been working with my private clients on exactly this question for the past several months. And a pattern keeps emerging.
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I’m calling it the Barbell Dynamic.
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Here’s the short version: the market is splitting into two extremes.
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On one end, you need scalable reach that costs almost nothing to distribute. A newsletter, a book, a podcast, free content that makes you findable by the people who need what you offer. (i.e. Your Strategic Content Ecosystem).
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On the other end, you need an ultra-premium, “unscalable” offering that commands a significant price precisely because it’s built on what’s irreplaceably human about you and what you do.
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(i.e. Private advisory, in-person experiences, high-touch services that AI can’t touch…)
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The middle?
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The mid-range courses, the mid-tier programs, the offerings that are “good enough” but not remarkable?
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That’s the void to avoid.
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That’s what’s being hollowed out. That’s what the blue bars on that chart are eating alive.
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The entrepreneurs I’m working with who are winning right now aren’t choosing one end or the other. They’re building both. And they’re deliberately killing the middle.
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(You may have noticed I’ve also done this in my own business.)
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There’s a lot more to this story, including specific numbers, that I want to share with you. But there’s more here than I can cover in a single newsletter.
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So here’s what I’ve decided to do:
3 | This Is So Important, I'm Hosting a Town Hall This Week.
You may remember that I was planning a town hall earlier this year that I had to postpone. I got buried in the editing process for my book and didn’t have the bandwidth to host it.
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I’ve decided to hold it this week.
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I need to do it before I leave for SXSW, where I’ve been asked to deliver a keynote that touches on many of these same ideas.
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So the timing is tight. But this topic has been building for months, and I don’t want to wait any longer.
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Here are the details:
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Return to Real Town Hall: Building an AI-Proof Business When 95% of Work Is About to Become Free.
Tuesday, March 10 12:00 – 1:30 PM ET
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The Town Hall is free to attend, but it’s happening LIVE and it’s limited to the first 300 who join.
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Here’s what I’ll be covering:
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- The Anthropic data and what the remaining 5% means for your business.
- The “Barbell Dynamic” in detail, including the specific structure I’ve used to rebuild my own business (with real numbers)
- How Category of One positioning has evolved in 2026, and why what worked even a year ago isn’t enough anymore
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I’m also going to make an invitation at the end to a very limited opportunity that I haven’t announced publicly anywhere else.
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I’ll share more on Tuesday. (You’ll want to be there live for that.)
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I’m looking forward to this one.
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It’s been a while since we’ve been in a room together, even on Zoom like this.
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And given how fast things are moving, this conversation feels overdue.
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Okay, I’ll leave you with that for today…
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Remember to hug the ones that you love.
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And I look forward to seeing you on Tuesday.
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Ryan :-)
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P.S. If you’re part of my Beta Reader program for Return to Real, keep your eyes peeled.
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I’ve made a *bunch* of revisions from the first round of manuscript feedback. The next round of invitations to get access to the revised manuscript will be going out in the next few days.
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Stay tuned!