Imagine this:
You’re a 10 year old kid playing basketball for the first time.
You’re one of the youngest (and smallest) kids on the team…
It’s your first season playing – and it’s game time.
After sitting the first quarter, your coach calls you in…
And you’re assigned to match up against…
A giant of a kid on the opposing team who is nearly 2 years older, 40 pounds heavier, and at least a 12 inches taller than you…
On the next possession…
It becomes immediately clear that you’re seriously over-matched.
“The Mountain” that you’ve been asked to guard is…
Bigger than you…
Stronger than you…
Faster than you…
More skilled than you…
And on each of the next three possessions…
He drives right past you…
Runs through you like you’re not even there…
So what do you do?
Well…
Feeling completely helpless…
In the middle of the next possession…
With the game clock still running…
You fold.
Walk off the court…
You give up – right there in the middle of the game.
Your coach scrambles to call a timeout to bring in a substitute…
And you spend the next three quarters sitting on the bench with your head hanging in your hands…
In tears.
* * *
Now, maybe the ten year old version of you wouldn’t have responded this way…
(Or perhaps you might’ve…)
But earlier this week, this is exactly what happened with my youngest son…
(Pictured in the blue shirt in that photo…)
And as a Dad in the bleachers watching this whole sequence play out in real time…
When my son stepped off the court – feeling hopeless and defeated…
I knew this was a teachable moment.
And that the words that I chose to share with him when the game ended would be important…
1 | How to Respond to Adversity.
Last week, in The Digital Contrarian – I shared a piece that left some readers feeling…. well, a bit like how my son felt on the court:
Hopeless and defeated.
Now, in case you missed it…
[Issue #033] The Coming Collapse? was a piece confronting the sobering reality that AI is putting at risk virtually every white-collar profession on the planet (not necessarily yours, but those of your prospective customers, clients, and consumers across the entire economy) – perhaps far sooner than many may have predicted just a few short months ago…
And with the domino effect disruption at this scale unlike anything we’ve ever experienced in our lifetimes, and large-scale, AI-induced layoffs already starting to be announced…
Coming from a place of curiosity, I asked the question:
How are YOU thinking about all this and preparing for all this – specifically right here, in this moment??
I cannot stress enough how much I recommend taking a few moments to read through at least some of these comments…
But there was one comment in particular from Will Ward that I think helps really frame our discussion today and that’s this:
The reframe that’s been most helpful is to think of our identities as problem solvers. Because if we do, we’ve got nothing to worry about…
* * *
The Coming Collapse (and how to respond to it) was a topic of discussion that emerged on calls with multiple Private Clients this week – as well as with several members of my Strategic Advisory Group Mastermind…
And in today’s issue…
I want to offer what I believe is one of the biggest takeaways from the discussions I’ve been having…
As well as a potentially provocative approach in your business to consider – if you want to best prepare yourself for the forces we’re all about to face…
But first, back to basketball…
2 | Hard Times & Core Values.
There is a quote, with which you may be familiar, that’s attributed to the writer G. Michael Hopf:
“Hard times create strong men.Strong men create good times.Good times create weak men.Weak men create hard times.”
It’s an homage to the work of Ibn Khaldun, the 14th-century historian and philosopher, who expressed a similar cyclical theory of history, as well as Plato, who did the same over thousand years earlier…
* * *
As a parent, I often think about the cyclicality of history, and how to best prepare my two boys to become men in an unknown world which has a greater than non-zero chance of being radically different from the one we all grew up in…
As I wrote in response to a comment on this post from one of my Strategic Advisory Group Mastermind members, Maeve Ferguson:
“I think we need to prepare our kids for different potential futures. Yes, learn AI but also learn the Hard Skills. How to grow your own company, but at the same time, also how to grow your own food…”
* * *
In fact, that’s one of the reasons we’re doing what we’re doing here on the farm – with one foot in two different worlds – which I wrote about in [Issue #029] An Epic Look Back at 2024…
That said…
Despite the uncertainty in front of us, there are certain things Tylene and I believe are worth teaching our kids no matter what version of the future emerges…
Things that are both timeless and universal….
Principles we believe transcend trends and technology.
Things we consider to be part of our Core Family Values.
For example, one of our Core Family Values is…
Courage & Grit.
As we’ve discussed countless times over the years with our boys – in our family, Courage & Grit means the following:
Courage is not about not being afraid. It’s about doing what scares you in spite of that fear. It’s about seeking comfort in discomfort. Because remember: The thing you’re most afraid of doing in this moment – is often the thing you most need to do.Grit is about picking yourself up when you fail. Because you will fail. You will aim and you will miss. And you will miss again. But don’t let this stop you, because remember: You are strong. And you can do hard things. You can. You have. And you will.
* * *
So…
When I sat down with my son after the game, and we talked about what happened in the game, and how he walked off the floor – we talked about Courage & Grit.
We talked about how – when we’ve made a commitment to do something and there are people in our lives depending on us – no matter how hard it may be in that moment…
We don’t quit on our teammates…
We don’t quit on our coaches…
And most importantly…
We don’t quit on ourselves.
* * *
Which brings us to our discussion today and an idea I want to invite you to reflect on in the face of The Coming Collapse…
3 | Becoming Antifragile.
As I wrote in Issue #033, I am a long-term optimist – but with a healthy dash of short-term paranoia, as every good CEO learns to develop…
Because when you’re not afraid to Ask Questions. Be Curious. Seek Truth….
(As uncomfortable as it may be…)
And when you don’t shy away from Doing Hard Things…
(As difficult as that may be…)
In the words of Nasim Nicholas Taleb – it makes you Antifragile.
* * *
Now, if you haven’t read Taleb’s work, or you’re not familiar with the concept of antifragility, ChatGPT offers us the following definition:
To become antifragile, as defined by Nassim Taleb in Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, means to design systems, habits, and mindsets that not only withstand stress, volatility, and uncertainty but actually benefit and grow stronger from them.
In other words, when you become antifragile – you (and your business) actually become stronger in the face of adversity.
* * *
Now here in The Digital Contrarian, over the last few months we’ve discussed some of the numerous forms of adversity we’re facing – as well as some of the many strategies for responding to that adversity, including:
The Great Sea Change: Why the Digital Marketing Playbook from the Last Decade is Now Obsolete, and Where to Shift Your Focus…
Going Analog: The Contrarian Path to Thriving in this New Digital Era by Zigging when others Zag…
The Return to Real: The Secret to Financial Success & Living Authentically & The Quiet Movement Taking Shape in the World…
* * *
And now, with The Coming Collapse, naturally the question is:
How do we now practically prepare for this??
Where is the opportunity?
And perhaps most importantly:
Are there steps we can we potentially take so that the coming adversity actually makes our business…. Stronger?
Or in other words, steps we can take which make us:
Antifragile?….
4 | Positioning Yourself at the Intersection of Multiple Megatrends.
In [Issue #031] Cultivating Influence vs. Chasing Attention, we explored the idea of Megatrends.
(It’s an issue worth reading or re-reading if you missed or skimmed it the first time around….)
Now, in terms of how that issue relates to our discussion today…
According to a Goldman Sachs report, recently referenced at the University of Chicago, estimates are that AI could displace as many as 300 million jobs worldwide over the next decade (and this is already underway…)
Three hundred million people is a LOT of people.
Which means this is definitely an example of a Megatrend.
So where’s the opportunity?
Well, consider how several of my Strategic Advisory Group Mastermind members are responding to this…
One member of my Mastermind, whom I spoke to earlier this week, is using an Assessment Model in an innovative way in the Career Space – generating over $600K in revenue in his business last year by helping workers identify missed opportunities in their profession…
One of my Private Clients recently developed a Coaching Certification offer for a highly-specific demographic segment that generated over $1.3M in revenue last year and which is projected to more than double in the next 12 months…
In other words, with millions of careers likely to be disrupted and displaced, there is a massive opportunity to position yourself to serve a specific segment of workers, and help them learn the necessary skills and make the necessary shifts to thrive in the new world ahead of us…
So, what’s another Megatrend we might combine this with?
What about…
Shifting Population Curves.
So check this out…
When you look at the Population Pyramids in the infographic above, one thing I want to draw your attention to is the population curve of the United States relative to some of the other countries highlighted.
In the USA we’re simultaneously facing a decrease in labor force participation and at the same time a rapidly aging population…
This is setting up major demand for certain professions in the coming years, like for example, Home Healthcare Providers. In fact, in the United States alone, the Home Healthcare Services Market is expected to double in the next decade to over $176B by 2032.
So where is the intersection between these two Megatrends?
i.e. AI-Workforce Disruption + Aging Population Dynamics?
Well, how about helping entrepreneurs with companies disrupted by AI start and grow home healthcare businesses?
Or how about helping workers displaced by AI retrain for new careers in the home healthcare services sector?
In terms of business model…
This could be everything from offering these services yourself to selling leads to for-profit education providers already positioned in this space…
(And a million other variations on this theme…)
See how this works?
The greater the disruption… the greater the displacement… the greater the adversity… the stronger you business becomes.
Antifragile.
I’ll give you another example…
5 | Message vs. Messenger & The Return to Real.
There is a growing coalition of “Return to Real” businesses taking shape in the world…
Like The Digital Contrarian reader Vincent Pugliese, who sent me a short audio message this week, letting me know he just wrapped his 100-person live-event The Unconference which he filled to capacity by “Going Analog” and selling entirely through personal conversations and word of mouth…
And my friend and colleague Megan Hyatt Miller who recently wrote about the “Return to Real” movement in her fascinating recent long-form newsletter on Dopamine & Digital Addition…
(Check out the excerpt below…)
But it was my “Return to Real” colleague, Nicole Johnsey Burke who may have had the biggest impact this last week.
Now, if you’re not familiar, Nicole operates a business in the gardening space called Gardenary and in the last year and a half, the size of her audience has exploded…
In fact, she’s generated over 800K new followers in just the last year and a half, and currently sits at 1.2M followers on Instagram. As a result, she has a highly-profitable business that did over $2.5M in revenue last year…
So this week, I invited Nicole to present to my Strategic Advisory Group Mastermind and share some of the secrets behind her explosive growth.
And while I can’t publicly share all the secrets she revealed…
What I can tell you is that she’s positioned herself at the intersection of at least three different Megatrends:
Megatrend #1: Food Sovereignty
Nicole helps people in a small way take control of the food they consume and producing more of it themselves – by starting a simple, backyard garden. This is a major trend taking shape in the United States, and in the world.
Megatrend #2: The Return to Real
Nicole shows the “real and raw” version of what she’s doing in her own garden, as well as with her clients. Her short-form videos aren’t fancy. She’s often not wearing any makeup. And instead of production, she focuses on being prolific… She’s taking a ‘Zig when they Zag’ approach to the typical instagram format you often see in this vertical.
Megatrend #3: Messenger vs. Message.
Anybody can say what you’re saying. But nobody else can be you. In an age where the allure of AI UGC and “Faceless” social media accounts can be seductive – those strategies put you dangerously at risk at being easily replaced in your market.
We’re in an age where the messenger is more important than the message. People want to know not just what is being said… but who is the person behind what’s being said.
Nicole focuses on her positioning as the Messenger. Simultaneously developing a relationship with her audience and being relatable to her audience – so that when they see her on video, they see themselves.
* * *
Now, I could go on and on and on…
But I’m out of time.
And as I wrap this issue for today…
The takeaway I want to leave you with is this…
The Truth is almost always in the Tension.
The “Yes and…”
YES… we’re likely to experience massive AI-induced disruption at a scale and magnitude unlike anything we’ve experienced in our lives thus far…
AND…
At the same time, there are some incredible opportunities in front of us…
YES… we’re likely to experience some Hard Times ahead…
AND…
At the same time, you can do hard things…
* * *
YES and….
At least one thing is for certain.
No matter what comes your way….
Whether that’s a towering opponent twice your size on the basketball court…
Or AI technology disrupting your livelihood and putting your entire business or profession at risk….
Remember those two universally important ingredients for success:
Courage & Grit.
Courage is not about not being afraid. It’s about doing what scares you in spite of that fear. It’s about seeking comfort in discomfort. Because remember: The thing you’re most afraid of doing in this moment – is often the thing you most need to do.Grit is about picking yourself up when you fail. Because you will fail. You will aim and you will miss. And you will miss again. But don’t let this stop you, because remember: You are strong. And you can do hard things. You can. You have. And you will.
* * *
Remember to hug the ones you love.
And until next week,
Ryan :-)
