Today’s newsletter is going to be a bit different (and a bit shorter) than normal – in part because I’m overseeing a birthday sleepover and a house full of boys right now – so I’ve got one eye pointed in the other room as I write this to you right now :-)
But I posted something earlier this week on Facebook that really struck a chord…
And in case you missed it, I thought I’d share it here below (with some deeper thoughts and a question to consider), because I believe this may be the single most important discussion for us to be having right now. So without further delay, here goes….
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What I’m about to share is not surprising or new, but confronting this reality is something I’m very curious where you stand and what you’re thinking about around this topic – in this moment.
The disruption that AI is having – and the accelerating pace of technology we’re seeing landing on our doorstep in just the last week – China’s DeepSeek, OpenAI’s Operator, etc. etc…
Is naturally putting virtually every (current) white collar profession at risk of being obsolete – perhaps far sooner than many may have thought even just a few months ago…
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And I’m not seeing this conversation taking place online in a way that I would expect to be seeing…
Now, when I refer to this risk of obsolescence…
I’m not just referring to marketers and content creators – but lawyers, financial advisors, virtual assistants, healthcare workers – and virtually every knowledge worker profession, across the entire economic spectrum…
Not just isolated in a single industry or location – like a Detroit automotive blight situation.
But globally, transcending every industry.
And if the short-term AI margin gains renders massive un or under-employment within the companies adopting this technology….
(Not theoretically in the distant future, but in the coming year…)
And everyone from the the lawyers, assistants, healthcare workers, etc. etc. who were very recently *consumers* of the products in those businesses…
Can no longer afford to purchase from those companies….
When does the whole house of cards collapse?
(And how soon does this happen?)
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In other words…
When the Chipotles of the world replace their counter staff with their robot servers (in progress now) – and hundreds of thousands of minimum wage workers are laid off…
And when the law firms of the world downsize their firms due to deflationary AI pressure, and hundreds of thousands of six-figure lawyers (many still paying off law school debt) are laid off…
And consumers in every economic situation in between are disrupted in a similar way – all at once…
Who are the consumers spending money in this economy??
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AND… when there is nobody spending money…
And the businesses (and business owners) that serve these customers start seeing their revenues drop and margins go upside down…
And stock prices begin to collapse…
(Again, not in an isolated industry or market – but globally…)
And retirees and investors relying on their portfolios holding positions in these securities to provide their income…
Where does this leave us?
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This is not intended to be a “doom and gloom” manifesto, but instead is really rooted in curiosity… (Because as an entrepreneur, I am hardwired with a bias toward long-term optimism, albeit with a dash of ever-present short-term paranoia, as every good CEO learns to develop over time…)
And I totally *get* the opposing argument, that every new form of technology creates demand for new professions and industries…
But the pace of change during other technological breakthrough periods (e.g. industrial revolution), was largely rooted in the physical world – so there was a natural governor limiting the practical pace of change…
This time, what we are seeing is happening at an accelerating, exponential pace – which our human brains have a difficult time grasping.
And this feels like this is right on our doorstep.
Not sometime “in the next decade”.
But imminently.
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Now, some have argued that the inevitable solution is UBI (Universal Basic Income) and that the populace will soon beg for it…
(BTW – We really have no idea what effect UBI would have on the global economy. UBI experiments so far have only been implemented on a relatively small, localized scale – and any projection on the impact of UBI implemented on a global scale is rooted in theory, not historical empirical evidence…)
Some have argued that we’re destined for a world controlled by a tiny handful of technocratic trillionaires as we experience a sudden, hyper-concentration of wealth…
(And that the rest of us, even “wealthy” 7 and 8 figure entrepreneurs, are slated to be part of a neo-peasant class…)
Some argue that the best hedge we have against this shift – bigger than anything we’ve ever experienced – is to invest in these trillion dollar AI companies as shareholders now, so we can at least get some of the crumbs thrown our way…
(But as we’ve seen from NVIDIA this past week, which lost 17% of its value on Monday this week – wiping out $600BN in market cap, representing the biggest one-day loss in U.S. history, this is a highly-volatile space, and we don’t yet know which players are going to emerge as the winners of this Megatrend in the next few years…)
Others argue that our best bet is to educate ourselves as much as possible and be the one to bring to our organization the AI-enabled solutions that render our current work obsolete, so that when the layoffs come (and they will) that we’re the last ones to go…
And there are a million other perspectives – and a thousand shades of gray of the above…
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But I believe at least one thing is certain:
We are in uncharted territory.
And in unprecedented times like this when “letting history be our guide” can only take us so far…
Imagination can be more important than analysis.
In other words:
Yes, be a student of history.
But also one of creativity…
Think in terms of the range of future possibilities – particularly the ones not getting headline attention in the media.
And make preparations rooted in probability…
(Not a singular, inevitable black and white future…)
And recognize that anyone who expresses certainty around future events over which they do not have control – is someone to be viewed with deep skepticism…
Cultivate the skill of becoming an Independent Thinker…
Ask Questions. Be Curious. Seek Truth.
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Now, there is so much more I could write about this topic (and perhaps will), but in the meantime there is a fascinating public conversation taking place right now as we speak, in that Facebook post I mentioned at the beginning of this issue…
In fact, the comments alone are a masterclass worth studying.
I believe this is *THE* conversation for us to be having together right now. And because I believe it is so important for us to be discussing this together…
I’m curious, how are YOU thinking about all this – specifically right here, in this moment?
I invite you to join the conversation.
I’m eager to learn about your perspective, even if (and in many ways especially if…) right now you’re thinking about things differently.
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Okay, I’ll leave you with that for now…
I have a house full of boys here for this sleepover who are getting a bit rowdy after playing some football outside in the snow, and I think it’s time for dad to step in :-)
Remember to hug the ones you love…
And until next week,
Ryan :-)
